Tuesday, May 16, 2017

North Korea Hwasong-12 Intermediate IRBM Ballistic Missile

North Korea Hwasong-12 Intermediate IRBM Ballistic Missile --- ===


*Reference

*Wikipedia


In May 2017 North Korea successfully tested a new missile, the Hwasong-12, with a similar range to the Hwasong-10. A new missile had been displayed in the April 2017 military parade on the Hwasong-10 mobile launcher, and the Hwasong-12 may be intended to replace the Hwasong-10 which has been shown unreliable during its test programme.[27][28]

Hwasong-10 - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-10
The Hwasong-10 also known by the names BM-25 and Musudan is a mobile .... In May 2017 North Korea successfully tested a new missile, the Hwasong-12, ...
Operational range‎: ‎2,500–4,000 km (est.)
Engine‎: ‎Liquid (same or derived from R-27 R-29)
Launch platform‎: ‎MAZ-based vehicle
Warhead weight‎: ‎1,000–1,250 kg (est.)

The Hwasong-10 (Chosŏn'gŭl: 화성 10; hancha: 火星 10), also known by the names BM-25 and Musudan (Chosŏn'gŭl무수단Hancha舞水端), is a mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile developed by North Korea. Hwasong-10 was first revealed to the international community in a military parade on 10 October 2010 celebrating the Korean Worker's Party's 65th anniversary, although experts believe these were mock-ups of the missile.[4][3] Hwasong-10 resembles the shape of the Soviet Union's R-27 Zyb submarine-launched missile, but is slightly longer.[3]
Since April 2016 the Hwasong-10 has been tested a number of times, with two apparent partial successes and a number of failures.

Development[edit]

In the mid-1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea invited the Makeyev Design Bureau's ballistic missile designers and engineers to develop this missile, based on the R-27 Zyb.[citation needed]
It was decided that, as the Korean People's Army's MAZ-547A/MAZ-7916 Transporter erector launcher could carry 20 tonnes, and the R-27 Zyb was only 14.2 tonnes, the R-27 Zyb's fuel/oxidizer tank could be extended by approximately 2 metres.[3]Additionally, the warhead was reduced from a three-warhead MIRV to a single warhead.
The actual rocket design is a liquid fuel rocket, generally believed to use a hypergolic combination of unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) as fuel, and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) as oxidizer.[3] Once the fuel/oxidizer combination are fed into the missile, it could maintain a 'ready to launch' condition for several days, or even weeks, like the R-27 SLBM, in moderate ambient temperatures. A fueled Hwasong-10 would not have the structural strength to be safely land transported, so would have to be fueled at the launch site.[3]
It was originally believed that the rocket motors of Hwasong-10 is made up the second stage of the Taepodong-2, which North Korea unsuccessfully test fired in 2006.[5] However analysis of the Unha-3 launch, believed to be based on the Taepodong-2, showed that the second stage did not use the same fuel as the R-27, and is probably based on Nodong rocket technology.[3]
Initially it was believed that there is a possibility that Hwasong-10 likewise is using the Nodong's kerosene and corrosion inhibited red fuming nitric acid (IRFNA) propellants, reducing the missile's range by about half.[3][6]
However it is unlikely that North Korea uses IRFNA propellants which will reduce its range by about half, after the experts acknowledged that the June 22 twin test range could be at 3,150 km if the missile was not launched in the lofted trajectory.[7]

List of Hwasong-10 tests[edit]

AttemptDateLocationPre-launch announcement / detectionOutcomeAdditional Notes
115 April 2016 5:30 a.m. Pyongyang Standard TimeWonsanReports of the test is imminent surfaced on just a day before.[8]FailureBoth US and South Korea "detected and tracked" the missile followed by the confirmation of launch failure. South Korea further claims the missile in this test deviated from a "normal" trajectory.[9]
North Korea kept silent on the test despite the day is the 104th anniversary of the birthday of Kim Il Sung.
228 April 2016 6:10am Pyongyang Standard TimeNorth Eastern CoastNoneFailureCrashed a few seconds after liftoff. North Korea kept silent on the test.[10][11]
328 April 2016 6:56pm Pyongyang Standard TimeWonsanNoneFailureAccording to US sources, the missiles went an estimated 200 meters off the launchpad. North Korea kept silent on the test.[11]
431 May 2016 5:20 am Pyongyang Standard TimeWonsanNoneFailureMissile exploded on site. North Korea kept silent on the test.[12]
522 Jun 2016 5:58 am Pyongyang Standard TimeWonsanNoneSuccess (North Korea) / Failure (South Korea & US authorities)Missile crashed at 150 km away from the site. First successful Hwasong-10 missile test that safely launched from the launch site but still exploded in the midway.[13][14] North Korea did not respond until after the 6th launch which hails the twin missile test was a success.
Although initial reports suggested that this test was a failure due to a relative short distance and the missile did exploded in the mid air, at least one US missile expert suggested otherwise.
David Wright, a missile expert and co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program suggested that the North could have intentionally terminated its flight early to keep it from flying over Japan after launching it at a normal angle because the distance of flight at 150 km, corresponds roughly to burnout of the Hwasong-10 engines.[15]
622 Jun 2016 5:58 am Pyongyang Standard TimeWonsanNoneSuccess (North Korea) / Partial Success (South Korea & US)South Korea, US and Japan eventually confirmed that the missile reached an apogee of about 1,000 km and landed in Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea) at about 400 km away from the launch site. South Korea originally skeptical of the test as success because the missile did not reach a minimum of 500 km to be considered as an IRBM.
However, with the subsequent analysis, experts agreed that the about 1,000 km apogee is intended for the missile to fly at a steeper angle than would be ideal that could reach its maximum range of 3,500 km or more as a deliberate attempt to avoid Japanese airspace.[16]
North Korea have hailed the twin test in 22 Jun 2016 as a 'complete success'in the state-owned TV channel KCNA with mentioning the missile accurately landed in the targeted waters 400 km away after flying to the maximum altitude of 1,413. 6 km along the planned flight orbit. North Korea confirms this missile as "Hwasong-10" The extract is re-uploaded in Youtube.[1]
Kim Jong Un reiterate that "We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theatre.".[17]
However, there are missile experts who are skeptical of Hwasong-10 being able to hit Guam with a 650 kg payload with the estimated range of 3,150 km. They have added that Hwasong-10 at this configuration will need to have their warhead reduced to below 500 kg in order to reach Guam, which is about slightly further than 3,400 km away from North Korea.[7]
7 (Alleged)15 Oct 2016 12:03 pm Pyongyang Standard TimeKusongNoneFailure (South Korea & US)Intermediate Ballistic Missile launch failure detected by US military without elaborate details, which is believed to be a Hwasong-10 missile.[18][19] North Korea is silent on this report.
On 26 Oct 2016 however, Washington Post carried a report from an analysis from Jeffrey Lewis who raised that there is 50% chance which the North Korea might have actually tested their domestic ICBM (Western intelligence sources named this missile as KN-08) based on the burn scars evidence taken from satellite imagery to be bigger than any other Musudan (Hwasong-10) tests. He concluded that this test has damaged the launch vehicle without flight.[20]
In the same report, Jeffery Lewis has also stated not to place full trust on the U.S. agency StratCom for identifying missile. He had cited the track of StratCom which has misidentified the three missiles launched last month by identifying them initially as short-range Rodongs, subsequently medium-range Musudans which turned out to be extended-range Scud missiles.[20]
Jeffery Lewis is nonproliferation expert and director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS).[20]
The news is also reported by other media agencies, including Yonhap.[21][22]
8 (Alleged)20 Oct 2016 7:00 am Pyongyang Standard TimeKusongNoneFailure (South Korea & US)Intermediate Ballistic Missile launch failure again detected by US military without elaborate details, which is again believed to be a Hwasong-10 missile.[23]
The launch just took place hours before the final US Presidential Election 2016 debates starts and the North Korea is silent on this report.
On 26 Oct 2016 however, Washington Post carried a report from an analysis from Jeffrey Lewis who raised that there is 50% chance which the North Korea might have actually tested their domestic ICBM (Western intelligence sources named this missile as KN-08) based on the burn scars evidence taken from satellite imagery to be bigger than any other Musudan (Hwasong-10) tests. However, the missile in 20 Oct 2016 test could have fly for a short distance before things went wrong as compared to the test in 15 Oct 2016 which damaged the launch vehicle instead.[20]
In the same report, Jeffery Lewis has also stated not to place full trust on the U.S. agency StratCom for identifying missile. He had cited the track of StratCom which has misidentified the three missiles launched last month by identifying them initially as short-range Rodongs, subsequently medium-range Musudans which turned out to be extended-range Scud missiles.[20]
Jeffery Lewis is nonproliferation expert and director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS).[20]
The news is also reported by other media agencies, including Yonhap.[21][22]
9 (Alleged)11 Feb 2017 7:35 am Pyongyang Standard TimePanghyon AirportNoneUnknown
The missile was launched at 07:55 local time (22:55 GMT Saturday) and flew east towards the Sea of Japan for about 500 km, South Korean officials say.[24] According to ROK JCS, "it was launched around 7:55 a.m (KST), from Banghyeon in North Pyongan Province.[25]

Strategic implications[edit]

Currently, North Korea is also working on land based nuclear deterrents that are of Intercontinental range, such as KN-08KN-14 (Upgraded version of KN-08). It is also working a sea-based nuclear deterrent, such as KN-11 SLBM.
North Korea is confirmed to have successfully launched a KN-11 missile in a full test flight in a lofted trajectory and expecting KN-11 to be operationally deployed as early as before 2017 by South Korea military source in 25 Aug 2016.[26]
In May 2017 North Korea successfully tested a new missile, the Hwasong-12, with a similar range to the Hwasong-10. A new missile had been displayed in the April 2017 military parade on the Hwasong-10 mobile launcher, and the Hwasong-12 may be intended to replace the Hwasong-10 which has been shown unreliable during its test programme.[27][28]

Description and technical specifications[edit]

Estimated maximum range of some North Korean missiles [29]

Hwasong-10[edit]

  • Launch weight: about 20 tons (est.)[3]
  • Diameter: 1.5 m[3]
  • Total Length: 12 m[3]
  • Payload: 1,000–1,250 kg (est.)[2]
  • Warhead: single
  • Maximum range: 2,500–4,000 km (est.)[2]
  • CEP: 1.3 km
  • Launch platform: North Korean-produced TEL, resembling a stretched and modified MAZ-543

Operators[edit]

Map with BM25 operators in blue

Current operators[edit]

  •  North Korea: According to one source, more than 200;[30] other source claims 12 deployed.[31] 16 were seen at once during the October 10, 2010 Military Parade, although experts contacted by the Washington Post believed these were mock-ups of the missile.[4]

Suspected operators[edit]

Section 25 of this leaked cable (written before the 10 October 2010 appearance of the missile)[33] says:
Russia said that during its presentations in Moscow and its comments thus far during the current talks, the U.S. has discussed the BM-25 as an existing system. Russia questioned the basis for this assumption and asked for any facts the U.S. had to provide its existence such as launches, photos, etc. For Russia, the BM-25 is a mysterious missile. North Korea has not conducted any tests of this missile, but the U.S. has said that North Korea transferred 19 of these missiles to Iran. It is hard for Russia to follow the logic trail on this. Since Russia has not seen any evidence of this missile being developed or tested, it is hard for Russia to imagine that Iran would buy an untested system. Russia does not understand how a deal would be made for an untested missile. References to the missile's existence are more in the domain of political literature than technical fact. In short, for Russia, there is a question about the existence of this system.
Given that Iran did not publicly display this missile system, there might be a chance that such transfer from North Korea did not happen at all.[4]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Jump up to:a b c KCTV (Kim Jong Un Guides Test-fire of Ballistic Rocket Hwasong-10) - Youtube, courtesy of KCNA
  2. ^ Jump up to:a b c d "Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile". AFP. GlobalPost. 8 April 2013. Archived from the original on 9 April 2013. Retrieved 10 April 2013. IHS Jane's puts the estimated range at anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres ... potential payload size has been put at 1.0-1.25 tonnes.
  3. ^ Jump up to:a b c d e f g h i j k Markus Schiller (2012). Characterizing the North Korean Nuclear Missile Threat (Report). RAND Corporation. ISBN 978-0-8330-7621-2. TR-1268-TSF. Retrieved 19 January 2013.
  4. ^ Jump up to:a b c d John Pomfret and Walter Pincus (1 December 2010). "Experts question North Korea-Iran missile link from WikiLeaks document release". Washington Post. Retrieved 13 June 2012.
  5. Jump up^ 2nd 3rd Right Side
  6. Jump up^ Markus Schiller, Robert H. Schmucker (31 May 2012). Explaining the Musudan (PDF)(Report). Schmucker Technologie. Retrieved 16 April 2013.
  7. ^ Jump up to:a b Michael Elleman: North Korea’s Musudan missile effort advances - IISS Voices, 27 Jun 2016
  8. Jump up^ Ahn, JH (14 Apr 2016) North Korea deploys missile for possible launch North Korea News, Retrieved 14 Apr 2016
  9. Jump up^ North Korea’s missile launch has failed, South’s military says - Washingtonpost.com, 15 April 2016
  10. Jump up^ South Korea: Suspected midrange North Korean missiles fail - Airforcetimes.com, 28 April 2016
  11. ^ Jump up to:a b North Korea launches two midrange missiles; both tests fail - CNN, 29 April 2016 GMT
  12. Jump up^ Tamir Eshel (31 May 2016). "North Korean Musudan IRBM Failed - Again". Defense Update. Retrieved 23 June 2016.
  13. Jump up^ N. Korea botches fifth Musudan missile test-launch
  14. Jump up^ [1]
  15. Jump up^ N. Korea's fifth Musudan test might not have been failure: US expert Archived 2016-06-29 at the Wayback Machine. - The Korea Times, 29 Jun 2016
  16. Jump up^ North Korea's Musudan Missile Test Actually Succeeded. What Now? - The Diplomat, 23 Jun 2016
  17. Jump up^ Kim Jong-un boasts of North Korea's Musudan missiles launch - International Business Times, 23 Jun 2016
  18. Jump up^ North Korea conducted failed ballistic missile test, US military says - The Guardian, 15 Oct 2016 22:34 British Standard Time
  19. Jump up^ US military detects 'failed ballistic missile launch' in North Korea after state media vows revenge for 'hostile acts' - The Independent, 15 Oct 2016
  20. ^ Jump up to:a b c d e f Did North Korea just test missiles capable of hitting the U.S.? Maybe. - Washington Post, 26 Oct 2016
  21. ^ Jump up to:a b (LEAD) N. Korea's failed missile tests could have involved KN-08: U.S. expert, Yonhap 27 Oct 2016 12:06
  22. ^ Jump up to:a b 美专家:朝鲜本月试射的并非“舞水端”而是洲际弹道导弹 - CRI Online (In Chinese: "American Exert: North Korea's missile test in this month isn't 'Musudan' but an ICBM"), 27 Oct 2016 11:33:25
  23. Jump up^ (LEAD) N. Korea's launch of Musudan missile ends in failure again: military - Yonhap, 20 Oct 2016 11:11
  24. Jump up^ "North Korea 'conducts ballistic missile test'". BBC. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  25. Jump up^ "N. Korea fired off a ballistic missile towards East Sea: JCS". Yonhap. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  26. Jump up^ (2nd LD) N.K. leader calls SLBM launch success, boasts of nuke attack capacity - Yonhap, 25 Aug 2016 08:17am
  27. Jump up^ Schilling, John (14 May 2017). "North Korea's Latest Missile Test: Advancing towards an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) While Avoiding US Military Action". 38 North. U.S.-Korea Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  28. Jump up^ Panda, Ankit (15 May 2017). "North Korea's New Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile, the Hwasong-12: First Takeaways". The Diplomat. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  29. Jump up^ BBC News - How potent are North Korea's threats?
  30. Jump up^ North’s Missiles Raise Concerns, Radio Free Asia, 13 October 2010
  31. Jump up^ North Korea Rolls Out Ballistic Missiles, Global Security Newswire, 13 October 2010
  32. Jump up^ William J. Broad; James Glanz; David E. Sanger (28 November 2010). "Iran Fortifies Its Arsenal With the Aid of North Korea". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 27, 2011. Retrieved 28 November 2010.
  33. Jump up^ U.S. Secretary of State (2010-02-24). "U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment Talks - December 2009". 10STATE17263. Retrieved 23 June 2016.

External links[edit]



*Sources

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/15/former-cia-agent-says-iran-aiding-north-korea-as-new-missile-test-emboldens-pyongyang.html missile landed in the sea between North Korea and Japan and near Russia. Based on KCNA's information, the medium long-range ballistic rocket flew 489 miles and reached heights of up 1,312 miles.  If you took that same missile and launched it on a trajectory that was optimized for range, you could actually get a range of over 4,000 kilometers (or 2,485 miles)," said CSIS's Harrison.development of the new missile known as the Hwasong-12.  
North Korea's missile launch: What do the images tell us?

North Korea's missile launch: What do the images tell us?

CNN · 19 minutes ago
Missile launch The Hwasong-12 was test-fired in the early hours of Sunday, May 14, from the town of Kusong near North Korea's west coast. "This is …
Hwasong-12 a stepping stone in North Korea’s ICBM development

Hwasong-12 a stepping stone in North Korea’s ICBM development

The hankyoreh · 12 hours ago
Latest launch shows advancement in reaching altitude over 2,000km, and a range that puts Guam in striking distance North Korea announced on

North Korea's New Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile ...

thediplomat.com/2017/05/north...missile-the-hwasong-12-first-takeaways North Korea introduces the Hwasong-12, a “perfect weapon system” that may bring the U.S. territory of Guam into range.