Is North Korean Sub Launched Missile a serious threat?
North Korean navy is considered a brown water navy and operates mainly within the 50 kilometer exclusion zone. The fleet consists of east and west coast squadrons, which cannot support each other in the event of war with South Korea. The limited range of most of the vessels means that even in peacetime it is virtually impossible for a ship on one coast to visit the other coast. primary offensive mission of the navy is supporting army actions against South Korea, particularly by inserting smallscale amphibious operations--SOF units--along the coast. The navy also has a limited capability to conduct rocket and shore bombardment raids against selected coastal targets.
It has approximately 20 diesel powered Romeo class submarines (1,800 tons). (global security) Submarines, most of which are of the 20-some Romeo-class, are outdated and slow, but they are sufficiently capable of blocking sea lanes. Similar in size to US WWII Gato class subs, the russian subs were based on German subs which were designed to operate mainly under water. These vessels could attack ROK surface vessels, emplace mines anywhere within the ROK maritime territory, or secretly infiltrate commandos into the South, but have no capability to launch missiles through either torpedo tubes, or vertical launchers submerged or surfaced. . In autumn 2014, satellite imagines identified a newly built submarine of a new class: with a length of 67 metres, it's the largest-ever submarine built so far by North Korea, it's believed to being related to older Yugoslavian projects, but if mass-built could potentially replace the aging fleet of Romeo submarines.
KN-11
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The KN-11 is a new North Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that is under development. There are conflicting reports over the current stage of development.
According to a KBS World Radio report, on 23 January 2015 US military officials spotted a flight test of such missile on a sea-based platform. This test came shortly after the North Korea a test from static launcher on land platform in November 2014. Since the test is not conducted on submarine directly, thus the US officials believed that this missile is still in its early stage of development. [1]
The Korea Herald reported that South Korean government officials responded that the report was incorrect, saying "The reports on a flight test of the SLBM were different from the truth. It was a test of a vertical launcher, not a flight test".[2]
Washington Free Beacon reported, that North Korea conducted a third test with the missile on an underwater test platform on 22 April 2015 near the country's coastal city of Sinpo and that previous tests of the KN-11 missile were conducted in January 23 and in October 2014.[3] South Korean officials later stated it was an "ejection test" to evaluate ejecting a submerged ballistic missile rather than a full test of a new missile system,[4][5] and that the test missile seemed to have been launched from a submerged barge rather than a submarine.[6]
Since information available is scarce, further technical details such as estimated range and payload, are yet to be determined.
2015 SLBM Test[edit]
On 9 May 2015, it was reported by North Korea's state run television that it has successfully tested a submarine launched ballistic missile without providing much details such as place of test, time of test as well as technical details such as the missile name and its range. The only information it provides is a picture showing that Kim Jong Un is watching the test with a missile fired from a submarine with the name Bukkeukseong-1 or Polaris-1 inscribed on the missile body.[5][7]
See also[edit]
Korean People's Navy
List of missiles
*Timeline
June 11, 2015
North Korea's Serious New Nuclear Missile Threat
North Korea claims to have nuclear warheads small enough to fit on their ballistic missiles andmissiles capable of being launched from a submerged platform such as a submarine.
Shortly after North Korea's April 22, 2015 missile test, which heightened international concernabout the military capabilities of North Korea,
if North Korea's technical advances are substantive, its missiles, armed with small nuclear weapons, might soon be able to reach the continental United States -- not just Hawaii and Alaska. in April 2013, an official U.S. assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency stated the U.S. had "moderate" confidence that "North Korea had indeed developed a nuclear device small enough to mount on a ballistic missile."
May 21, 2015 The Wall Street Journal, on May 21, 2015, echoed this view, noting: "[F]or evidence of North Korea's bending of reality to drum up fears about its military prowess," one need look no further than a consensus that North Korea "doctored" pictures of an alleged missile test from a submarine. This, they claimed, was proof that the "technology developments" by North Korea were nothing more than elaborately faked fairy tales.
May 19, 2015, 2:23 PM N. Korea years away from submarine missiles, U.S. says CBS WASHINGTON - North Korea is "many years" away from being able to launch ballistic missiles from a submarine but that capability could eventually pose a threat to U.S. allies Japan and South Korea, a top U.S. military officer said Tuesday. Photos showed a projectile rising from the sea's surface and Kim smiling from a distance at what looked like a floating submarine. Kim declared it to be a "world-level strategic weapon."
May 19, 2015 Real Launch but Barge was fake sub a high-ranking State Department official, Frank Rose -- Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance -- told a Korean security seminar on Capitol Hill that North Korea had successfully conducted a "missile ejection" test, but from an underwater barge rather than a submarine.[5]
May 19, 2015 S. Korea Protests N. Korea’s Missile Test Voice of America image published in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun newspaper of North Korea's ballistic missile believed to have been launched from underwater South Korea has sent a letter to a United Nations sanctions committee to protest North Korea’s recent test-firing of a ballistic missile, a South Korean official said Tuesday. “It was verified and confirmed that the underwater ballistic missile launch from a strategic submarine fully achieved the latest military, scientific and technical requirements,” said the North’s official media Korean Central News Agency.
May 10, 2015
A First: North Korea Tests 'Polaris-1' SLBM
Kim Jong-un couldn’t head to Moscow to celebrate Russia’s Second World War Victory Day so he settled for the next best thing: overseeing the first-ever test-firing of a North Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The regime’s mouthpiece, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), noted that Kim watched as North Korea’s Bukkeukseong-1 (“Polaris-1”) SLBM “soared to the skies.”
The physical design of the missile, as seen in a few clear images released by KCNA, resembles the Soviet Union’s R-27/SS-N-6 Serb SLBMs, which suggest a single-stage, storable liquid-propellant design. KCNA’s images, upon preliminary analysis, appear to be authentic and presented without any manipulation.
Neither KCNA nor any secondary sources have verified the location of the missile launch. KCNA noted that the launch was carried out far away from the land. In images shared by the agency, Kim Jong-un is seen observing the launch from the deck of a boat. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency suggests that the launch likely took place on Friday off North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, a facility on the country’s eastern coast. (Based on satellite imagery analysis, Sinpo was strongly believed to be the site of North Korea’s ongoing SLBM research and development.)
South Korea’s navy plans to deploy SLBMs by 2030, on six 3,000-ton submarines.
North Korean military was likely more interested in the Polaris-1′s ability to successfully clear the surface of the water with adequate thrust. South Korean officials estimate that the missile flew for just 100 meters above the surface.
The Bukkeukseong-1 confirms earlier reports by U.S. officials, including U.S. Strategic Command’s Admiral Cecil D. Haney, that North Korea was making concrete progress toward its first SLBM.
N.Korea boasts of firing ballistic missile from submarine
Jack Kim SEOUL – North Korea said on Saturday it had successfully test-fired a ballistic missile from a submarine, a step that would mark significant progress in the secretive state’s military capabilities. It could pose a new threat to South Korea, Japan and the United States, which have tried to contain North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile strength, military experts South Korean military expert who saw still photos of the launch in the North’s media said they appeared to show a ballistic missile being fired from a submarine in a “cold launch” through an ejection mechanism, a key element in a submarine launch system.
“The potential of this is that existing missile defence against the North can be rendered useless,” said Shin In-kyun, who runs the Korea Defence Network, an independent forum.
Such missile defence systems are positioned to look at the North, not at “submarines that could be south of Jeju or near Guam”. Jeju is a South Korean island.
Shin said a full deployment of the submarine-based missile system would still require a functional guided propulsion mechanism that can carry the missile vehicle from the water surface to a target.
In January, Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute said on its website, 38 North, that satellite imagery showed possible evidence of work on vertical launch tubes on a submarine that could be for ballistic missiles.
“The potential of this is that existing missile defence against the North can be rendered useless,” said Shin In-kyun, who runs the Korea Defence Network, an independent forum.
Such missile defence systems are positioned to look at the North, not at “submarines that could be south of Jeju or near Guam”. Jeju is a South Korean island.
Shin said a full deployment of the submarine-based missile system would still require a functional guided propulsion mechanism that can carry the missile vehicle from the water surface to a target.
In January, Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute said on its website, 38 North, that satellite imagery showed possible evidence of work on vertical launch tubes on a submarine that could be for ballistic missiles.
- Why watch close enough to get hurt if it blew up
- Why is dear leader in one ship not surrounded by other ships for security?
Stratfor: Summary On May 9, North Korea tested its new KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile under the watchful gaze of U.S. satellites, aircraft and observation ships. North Korea’s launch was successful: military personnel ejected the missile from underwater, its engine ignited at the surface and it flew about 150 meters (490 feet) before crashing into the sea. Fully developing this technology would extend the reach of North Korean nuclear missile systems and improve the country's second-strike capability in case its ground-based facilities are taken out. The smoothness of the test and the resulting media attention, however, obscure the major obstacles to developing this capacity. Developing the missile technology is one step, but Pyongyang also needs a suitable ballistic missile submarine of the requisite size, endurance and stealth — something that it does not have and will find challenging to develop. ..anonymous South Korean defense official told the media that North Korea could develop a fully operational system within two to three years. U.S. officials, however, believe a fully functional system is far from completion and allege the test was not actually carried out from a submarine. Instead, they suggest it was a simulated firing to test an underwater ejection system, perhaps from a towed launch pad. Eventually, North Korea could develop a suitable ballistic missile submarine, but it would take several years to complete. Such a development would truly change the nuclear equation. For now, however, the successful test conducted May 9 is not going to alter North Korea’s nuclear capability.
... give North Korea a second-strike capability, allowing it to retaliate against attacks on its land-based nuclear bases and launch pads. These benefits assume, however, that North Korea’s submarines have an adequate level of endurance, the amount of time a vessel can remain at sea unsupported. Submarines would need to be able to remain unsupported long enough to reach targets beyond the range of land-based missiles. In order to fulfill a second-strike role, vessels would need to be deployed for months far from vulnerable ports and remain ready for counterattack. North Korea’s current Type 033 submarines, even with modifications, cannot meet these endurance requirements. A fully functioning KN-11 missile would have a range of approximately 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles). The Type 033 submarine has a range of around 15,000 kilometers. This is not enough to approach within 2,500 kilometers of the U.S. mainland and return without at-sea refueling. Were North Korea to refuel these vessels at sea, it would significantly degrade the stealth variable of these vessels.
North Korea boasts of firing ballistic missile from submarine ... Reuters May 9, 2015 - SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Saturday it had successfullytest-fired a ballistic missile from a submarine, a step that would mark ...
May 9, 2015 (Video) North Korea test－fires submarine ballistic missile North Korea has test－fired a ballistic missile from an underwater submarine. The launch，... that was personally directed by leader Kim Jong－un，.. could have far－reaching security implications for South Korea and other players in the region.
North Korea test-fires underwater ballistic missile - Telegraph The Daily Telegraph May 8, 2015 - North Korea has successfully test-fired a newly developed underwater ballistic missile which it describes as a "world-level strategic weapon", ...
gatestone April 7, 2015, when the commander of Northcom, Admiral Bill Gortney, one of the nation's leading homeland security defenders, said the threat was considerably more serious. He noted that, "North Korea has deployed its new road-mobile KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile and was capable of mounting a miniaturized nuclear warhead on it."[1] At a Pentagon press briefing in April, Admiral Cecil Haney, Commander of the US Strategic Command and America's senior military expert on nuclear deterrence and missile defense, said it was important to take seriously reports that North Korea can now make small nuclear warheads and put them on their ballistic missiles.[2]
January 23, 2015 North Korea Flight Tests New Submarine-Launched Ballistic ... The Washington Free Beacon Feb 18, 2015 - Pentagon: KN-11 missile test fired from floating platform. North Korea Flight Tests New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile BY: Bill Gertz February 18, 2015 North Korea conducted the first flight test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile last month, defense officials said this week. The flight test of what the Pentagon is calling the KN-11 missile took place Jan. 23 off the coast of North Korea from a sea-based platform—not a submarine—located off the coast of the communist state, said officials familiar with reports of the flight test. U.S. intelligence ships and aircraft monitored the test and tracked the successful missile firing.
North Korea’s SINPO-class Sub: New Evidence of Possible Vertical Missile Launch Tubes; Sinpo Shipyard Prepares for Significant Naval Construction Program By Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Jan 8 January 2015 (photos) Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that the conning tower of a new North Korean submarine first seen in July 2014 houses 1-2 possible vertical launch tubes for either narrow-diameter ballistic or cruise missiles. (not big enough for polaris sized missiles) The boat could serve as an experimental test bed for land-attack missile technology, which if successful, may be integrated into a new class of submarines. In addition, imagery over the past six months indicates that North Korea has been upgrading facilities at the Sinpo South Shipyard in preparation for a significant naval construction program, possibly related to submarine development.
October 28, 2014 Satellite Photos Show N. Korean Test Stand for Submarine Missile FreeBeacon Imagery bolsters reports of SLBM development BY: Bill Gertz October 28, 2014 1:43 pm Satellite images of a North Korean submarine facility show what appears to be a missile tube being developed for a future ballistic missile submarine. The commercial imagery was disclosed Tuesday in an article published Tuesday by the group 38 North. According to 38 North, “the new installation is the right size and design to be used for the research, development, and testing of the process of ejecting a missile out of a launch tube as well as evaluating its compatibility with submarines and surface combatants as well as the missiles themselves.”...gives Pyongyang a survivable second-strike nuclear capability. Meanwhile, the commander of U.S. forces in Korea said last week that he believes North Korea now has the capability to make a nuclear warhead for a missile... analysis of the test stand indicates it appears to be the right size and design for ejection testing of a vertical missile launch tube used on submarines or surface ships “and possibly the initial stages of associated missile testing,” the report said. outgrowth of earlier efforts to study firing missiles from merchant ships
North Korea Building Missile Submarine Bill Gertz August 26, 2014 U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea is building a submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, potentially increasing the threat posed by the nuclear-armed rogue state. A missile launch tube on a North Korean submarine was observed recently by U.S. intelligence agencies and is raising new concerns about the missile and nuclear threat from the communist regime in Pyongyang, according to two defense officials familiar with reports of the development. submarine could be a modification of one of North Korea’s Russian or Chinese design Romeo-class diesel submarines. A second possibility is that the new missile submarine is a copy or modification of a Soviet-era Golf-class missile-firing submarine purchased by Pyongyang—ostensibly for scrap metal—in the mid-1990s. Most of the vessels are older diesel submarines, including 22 Romeo-class or Chinese design Type-031 subs—the type of submarine Kim was photographed on in June. U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea already has submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The North covertly obtained several SS-N-6 SLBMs from Russia. The missile has been adapted into North Korea’s new intermediate-range missiles.
Golf class - Scud missiles launched while surfaced from sail Golf class, were diesel electric ballistic missile submarines of the Soviet Navy. They were designed after six Zulu class submarines and were successfully modified to carry and launch Scud missiles. All Golf boats had left Soviet service by 1990. All have been since disposed of.[1][2][3] According to some sources at least one single Golf-class submarine is operated by China, to test new SLBMs.[4] The submarine was originally designed to carry three R-11FM ballistic missiles with a range of around 150 km. These were carried in three silos fitted in the rear of the large sail behind the bridge. They could only be fired with the submarine surfaced and the missile raised above the sail but the submarine could be underway at the time. In 1993, ten were sold to North Korea for scrap. However, they have since then focused on getting these boats back into service. Golf II carried R-21 missiles which could be launched from inside their tubes with the submarine submerged and increased speed first Soviet nuclear missile that could be launched from a submerged submarine, and also had twice the range of earlier missiles
Romeo class - no place for missile launch tube
Golf class - Scud missiles launched while surfaced from sail Golf class, were diesel electric ballistic missile submarines of the Soviet Navy. They were designed after six Zulu class submarines and were successfully modified to carry and launch Scud missiles. All Golf boats had left Soviet service by 1990. All have been since disposed of.[1][2][3] According to some sources at least one single Golf-class submarine is operated by China, to test new SLBMs.[4] The submarine was originally designed to carry three R-11FM ballistic missiles with a range of around 150 km. These were carried in three silos fitted in the rear of the large sail behind the bridge. They could only be fired with the submarine surfaced and the missile raised above the sail but the submarine could be underway at the time. In 1993, ten were sold to North Korea for scrap. However, they have since then focused on getting these boats back into service. Golf II carried R-21 missiles which could be launched from inside their tubes with the submarine submerged and increased speed first Soviet nuclear missile that could be launched from a submerged submarine, and also had twice the range of earlier missiles
Romeo class - no place for missile launch tube
North Korea Building Missile Submarine The Washington Free Beacon
Aug 26, 2014 North Korea developing ballistic missile submarine -video ARIRANG NEWS American intelligence agencies reportedly have grave suspicions... that North Korea is developing a submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles. North Korea’s use of submarine warfare was evident as recently as 2010, when it carried out a torpedo attack on South Korea’s Choenan costal warship, killing 46 sailors. A North Korean mini-submarine is suspected in that attack. North Korea denied it was behind the strike. ... If the modified submarine is based on the Golf, it is likely the technology or actual missile tubes were derived from the decommissioned submarines obtained in the mid-1990s. Rick Fisher, a military analyst, said he suspects one of the Golf-class submarines obtained by the North Koreans included one or more SS-N-6 missiles in its launch tubes as part of the deal. have used the past 20 years to reverse-engineer a version of the Golf, which was designed to carry up to three ballistic missiles, Fisher said. Golf-size ballistic missile-carrying submarine could potentially carry two Musudan-size liquid-fueled missiles or a larger number of long-range cruise missiles,” he said. could use one of its submarine missiles to attack Anchorage from waters near Russia’s Sakhalin Island. Another potential target for the North Korean missile submarine could be U.S. forces on Okinawa, Philippines, or Guam from the Yellow Sea. The missile could have a range of between 1,500 and 2,500 miles. “If not a Golf class, launch of SLBMs would probably require another large class of submarine .. North Korea developed a new land-mobile intermediate-range missile based on the SS-N-6 SLBM. The missile was deployed on Russia’s later Golf submarines China, which has produced a version of the Golf known as the Type-031 and which was used until 2013 as an SLBM test platform.
North Korea developing ballistic missile submarine ARIRANG NEWS Aug 26, 2014
North Korea is reportedly developing a ballistic missile submarine that, if confirmed to be true, would significantly raise the threat posed by the nuclear-armed communist state. Washington Free Beacon reported on Tuesday,... that U.S. defense intelligence agencies recently detected a previously-unseen missile launch tube on a North Korean submarine. North Korea is also believed to have obtained submarine-launched ballistic missiles from Russia. If confirmed,... this development would mean North Korea now has the capability to target Anchorage, as well as U.S. forces on Okinawa, the Philippines and Guam from Asian waters
April 2013
in April 2013, an official U.S. assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency stated the U.S. had "moderate" confidence that "North Korea had indeed developed a nuclear device small enough to mount on a ballistic missile."
August 2011
North Korea Updates A Cold War Classic:RSM-25
The SS-N-6 is a 1960s vintage ballistic missile, and is known in Russia as the R-27. SS-N-6 is a NATO code name for the R-27. This was Russia's first true submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM), and sixteen of them were carried in Yankee class SSBNs (missile carrying nuclear submarines.) The 12 ton R-27 had a range of 2,800 kilometers and used storable liquid fuel. This means it can be ready for launch in less than half an hour.
After the R-27 was replaced by more modern missiles in the 1970s, the missile continued to be used for scientific research until 1990. By that time, 492 R-27s had been launched, 87 percent of them successfully.
It would be very embarrassing for the Russians if someone had illegally exported SS-N-6/R-27 missiles to North Korea. It is more likely, and was been reported a few years ago, that the Russian organization that designed the R-27 illegally sold the plans to North Korea. This was supposed to have happened sometime in the 1990s, and the main reason for the deal was so that North Korea could obtain the R-27 missile guidance technology. The Russians kept improving the guidance system of the R-27 through the 1980s, while the North Koreans were desperate for missile guidance technology. But it appears that the North Koreans built at least one R-27, and may have incorporated R-27 technology in some of their other long range ballistic missiles. The North Koreans were apparently pleased with the R-27 design, and spent the time and effort to change it so that Musudan used more reliable solid fuel rocket motors, than the original liquid fuel ones.Strategy Page.
*Sources
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